10 FPS, 8 RPG, 3 war chess, and the big factory fought 2023 H1.

The Lunar New Year is approaching, and the spring of the "rabbit" in the game industry in 2023 is approaching.

Looking back on the past year, due to the economic downturn and the game version number policy, the growth rate of the domestic game market slowed down. Especially in the boutique new game market, there may be an empty window period.

According to competitive statistics, in 2022, the average number of new mobile games in the domestic market was about 128, which was a grade worse than the previous year. The products that can be stable in the Top10 of the game bestseller list are basically old acquaintances, and the "new faces" are either rare or "three-minute fever".

Of course, from the perspective of coping strategies, the key words emphasized by game manufacturers in 2022 are "going out to sea/globalization" and "revival of old products/sustainable operation". However, with the normalization of game version numbers and the resumption of the issuance of imported game version numbers, the new game market should glow in the new year in 2023. Some of these products are not only concerned by players, but also may affect the domestic revenue and strategic planning of game manufacturers.

The biggest surprise left for the game industry in 2022 is the "December Edition". The wish before the New Year’s Eve has not been made, but it will become a goal to be achieved after the countdown.

Among the 128 new version numbers (on December 28, 2022, 84 domestic version numbers and 44 imported version numbers were issued), many games were regarded as heavy products of head manufacturers, and some even called them "new tours that have been available for many years".

In response to the question mentioned by some netizens that "after the game gets the version number, it needs to go online within one year, otherwise the version number will be withdrawn", Jinghe consulted a number of practitioners in the industry, and their unified reply was: I have not heard of such a rule.

It is understood that the game that has obtained the version number may need to re-apply when the big version is updated, but it is not a re-application for the version number but a similar nature of content review. Of course, there are also cases where it is necessary to apply for a new version number, such as category change (originally MMO changed to FPS) or other particularly big changes, not to mention the registration number.

It is difficult to guess the online time of the product if we only cut in from one information point of the version number. Just like Tencent’s "Dungeon and Warriors Mobile Games" won the version number in 2017, but the game Hanbok was officially launched in March 2022, and there is no clear news about the national service so far.

Simply put, manufacturers are different in the pace of promoting new products.

Considering the past year or so, the domestic new travel market is relatively barren. First of all, players are very concerned about when these boutique games will go online; Furthermore, we hope that we can start with the version number, testing and operation information, look forward to the changes in the new game market in H1 (the first half of 2023), and guess whether the so-called "empty window period" will last.

On the other hand, in 2022, domestic manufacturers set off a "resurrection stream" to cope with the previously unclear industry environment.

Jinghe was also mentioned in the article "New Tour Version No.,Old Product Resurrection, Game Manufacturers Dare to Fight 2023", including Tencent’s Master of Rhythm, Netease’s Mystery Fight, Perfect World’s My Origin, etc., which may be a win-win solution for game manufacturers to give consideration to cost performance and players’ sustenance.

What needs to be mentioned is that in the same period, the news that Netease Blizzard stopped cooperation was exposed (the termination time was January 23, 2023). On the one hand, we feel sorry for this, on the other hand, we also see the opportunities brought by a large number of users flowing into the market after Blizzard games stopped in China.

For example, Mihayou Genshin Impact has built-in resident card game "Call of Seven Saints" and Netease’s World of Warcraft Veterans’ Clothing, etc., and it may be hoped that products such as Blizzard’s Hearthstone and World of Warcraft will be intercepted or correspondingly accepted.

Considering multiple factors such as version number and industry environment, Jinghe thinks that H1 in 2023 may be a good opportunity for major manufacturers to rally. In other words, if there is a so-called "empty window period", it is highly possible for manufacturers to speed up the process of launching new tours.

Judging from the implementation rhythm of major manufacturers at this stage, some of their heavy products are already preparing for listing.

According to the general understanding, if the new game needs high-density localization testing and optimization after obtaining the version number, it will generally be launched more than half a year later than the international service/Taiwanese service. Taking League of Legends as a reference, the online time of national service is 10 months later than that of international service/Taiwan service.

Of course, the time lag of some global simultaneous release products may be smaller. For example, Netease’s Diablo: Immortality is only one month away from the international service; Miha travels to Genshin Impact for global synchronous beta.

What needs to be put forward is that it is not impossible to get online quickly after the new game is issued with the version number, while ensuring the product quality. On January 10, Ali’s game Linxi Entertainment "Three Kingdoms War Chess Edition" started the paid beta.

Judging from the whole pace of innovation, the edition number was published and issued on December 28, 2022 (the trial time was December 10, 2022), and it was newly registered in WeChat official account on December 27 of the same year for certification. On January 6, 2023, the "Three Kingdoms War Chess Edition" released the test information and started the test on January 10. The interval between before and after is less than half a month.

　

In addition, according to a senior player of the Three Kingdoms Strategic Edition and the anchor of the Three Kingdoms Warfare Edition, the Warfare Edition will be officially launched in Q1, 2023.

Taking this as a reference, the "new year’s goods" reserved by Tencent and Netease are also expected to be launched in H1 in 2023. According to the incomplete statistics of competitive core, there are about 20 products that Tencent and Netease are currently preparing/researching. However, judging from the version number, testing and the rhythm of official community operation, the former may have some advantages in the first half of 2023.

As shown in the above figure, Tencent has obtained the version numbers of 16 games, including many imported heavyweight games such as Fearless Contract, Ark of Destiny, Pockmarked Dream Gathering, Dungeon and Warrior Mobile Games. Among them, the version numbers of the first three products are all batches in December 2022.

According to the public information and the official community information of the products, the first three works are subscribed by official website News, and the official WeChat official account of Ark of Destiny and Pockmarked Dream Assembly has also been certified and launched.

In addition, on January 11th, Tencent IEG K1 Cooperation Department released the social recruitment of "Ark of Destiny" project, including senior game planner and senior brand manager.

It should be pointed out that Jinghe believes that Tencent’s four imported games are expected to be launched in H1 in 2023, and there are other reasons: First, four high-quality games have performed better overseas, and landing in the national service will reduce the domestic revenue pressure in tencent games; Second, at this stage, the four products may be able to fill the market or step on the hot spots in the category.

For example, "Fearless Contract" itself has become one of the most mainstream FPS game projects and e-sports brands overseas. In 2022, Q1 and Q2 will hit a new high in running water and monthly activity, and become an important growth section of Tencent’s overseas game business. With the end-game service of FPS, such as Watch the Pioneer: Return, Night of the Fortress, etc., Fearless Contract is expected to become a new fan of FPS core players.

In addition, Tencent has obvious advantages in issuing DAU products and establishing e-sports events in China. On January 11th, Fist Games appointed Lin Song, the former head of Fist China E-sports and Tengjing Sports, as the president of global mobile business development. In addition, FPX has announced the establishment of a fearless contract division. According to industry sources, LGD, LNG, BLG, etc. are also preparing related teams.

　

All these factors and signs may also indicate that the fearless contract will be launched soon.

Looking at Netease again, games that have already won the version number, such as Ghost Story, Fantasy Life, All-Star Street Party and Rush to the Top, may also hit the corresponding category market in H1.

Frankly speaking, among the products that Netease is known to be developing, four martial arts products, such as "Going Against the Water", "Never Robbed", "Shooting Carvings" and "Sixteen Songs of Yanyun", may have higher attention. At present, these four products have not been issued version numbers yet, but they have been/are being tested, or are expected to officially meet players in 2023.

In addition to traditional giants such as Tencent and Netease, the works of the four little dragons in Shanghai games in the past two years are also the focus of attention in the circle.

First of all, watch Miha Tour. Previously, the company exposed new works under research, including Collapse: Star Dome Railway, Zero Zone, and the closed Project SH. Among them, the first two works were tested in May and August last year, and the market response was quite high.

Considering that the current two gamesDidn’t get the version number. In addition, on January 10th, some media reported that Mihayou said that the company began to enter the contraction cycle. The first is to resume the reasons for the closure of Project SH, and the second is to summarize the crisis of "big company disease" after the company’s crazy expansion in the past two years. To some extent, the offensive pace of Mihayou can also be condensed into the development and changes of the industry in recent years.

In view of Mihayou’s control over the project quality and the internal adjustment of the company at this stage. Perhaps, the two new works are still some time away from the official launch of the national service.

The situation of Shanghai’s four little dragons is similar to that of Miha Tour, which should be paper folding. On the one hand, the company also reported that there were several projects shut down and internal adjustment problems last year; On the other hand, although the company published two masterpieces, Hundred Faces and Thousand Faces and Infinite Warmth last year, the product is still in its infancy from the real machine demonstration screen, and the version number has not been obtained yet.

Looking at the eagle horn, it has always been a low-key type. The company’s first buyout two-dimensional new work "From Stardust" was exposed in September 2021, and the invitation to play in the alpha stage was opened in August last year. It is reported that the work is still in the early stage, and the overall development progress seems to be less than that of "next door". In addition, the work has not yet obtained the version number.

Lilith, by contrast, moves a little faster. Life of the Party, a leisure social game owned by the company, was published in April last year, and in November of the same year, SLG’s new work "Medal of War" was published.

According to the previous announcement issued by Lilith, the Medal of War will be open beta in April 2023; Life of the Party has been researched and developed for more than three years, and has been tested overseas. Perhaps it will not be too long before it goes online.

Looking back on 2022, the game industry suffered a lot of pressure, but some people turned this pressure into the driving force of "breaking the cocoon into a butterfly". Looking forward to 2023, perhaps the domestic new tour market will live a "green and yellow days", but this time should not be too long. We believe that domestic game manufacturers can bring a "rabbit" spring to the game industry in 2023, and continue to provide players with a good game experience.