Exploring the ＂two-festival＂ automobile market： the price reduction and promotion efforts of automobile enterprises have shrunk, and it is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 5%~10% in the fo

The traditional "Silver Ten" sales season in the auto market has kicked off since the Mid-Autumn Festival of the National Day.

"It is rare to have such a long vacation opportunity. You can take the elderly and children at home to the store to see the real car and test drive." On October 2nd, Zhang Xian (pseudonym), who lives in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, told the national business daily reporter when he was looking at the car in the store under Tengshi Automobile Line.

At the end of car companies, many brands also launched promotional activities during the two festivals in order to attract more consumers. According to the incomplete statistics of Red Star Capital Bureau, as of October 5th, seven automobile brand officials, including Ideality, Tucki, Guangqi Honda and Guangqi Toyota, announced the exclusive promotion policies for National Day, including cash subsidies, replacement subsidies, deposit deduction, financial policies, limited-time specials and points, etc., and the promotion time mostly ended on October 8th or 12th.

However, when the reporter visited the site, he found that compared with previous years, during the National Day holiday this year, the price reduction promotion of car companies was weakened and the scope was narrowed. A salesperson of BYD Wangchao.com in Beijing told the reporter that during the National Day this year, the manufacturer did not launch an exclusive promotion policy, but the car purchase subsidy was 2,000 ~ 3,000 yuan when the store was limited.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of Chenglian Branch, believes that under the influence of multiple factors, such as the strengthening of the "anti-involution" policy and the rebound in the prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate, the space for car companies to fight the "price war" is further narrowed.

Image source: Every photo by reporter Li Xing

estimateFourth quartercar marketThere is an obvious "tail-lifting" phenomenon.

It is worth noting that in the National Day promotion policies of the above seven automobile brands, although there are tens of thousands of brand comprehensive discounts, the actual discount amount for consumers to buy cars is only 2000~3000 yuan cheaper than usual. According to the reporter’s actual investigation of the two-section terminal auto market, the promotion of car companies has shrunk significantly during the two-section holiday this year.

In this regard, Lang Xuehong, Deputy Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association, believes that since the beginning of this year, relevant authorities have been controlling "involution" competition, and manufacturers will be more cautious about price reduction. "During the National Day, many provinces and cities are holding auto shows, and manufacturers will also have some supporting policies. In addition,’ Golden September and Silver 10′ is the peak demand season of the automobile market, and there is no need for car companies to further cut prices at this time. " Lang Xuehong said.

"This year is quite special. From January 1, 2026, the purchase tax on new energy vehicles will be resumed and the transitional policy of’ halving the levy’ will be implemented. At the same time, there is also the possibility of withdrawing from the "two new" policies next year. In this context, the demand in the auto market is strong in the fourth quarter of this year, and there will be a more obvious phenomenon of’ tail-jumping’. In the case of strong demand, it is unlikely that major car companies will cut prices at the end of the year. " Lang Xuehong further explained.

Cui Dongshu also said that, generally speaking, car companies’ price reduction promotion policies will be launched at the beginning of the year, and at the end of the year, sales will rebound and prices will be stable. "The relationship between volume and price in the auto market is that the lower the volume, the more stable the price." Cui Dongshu explained.

Image source: Every photo by reporter Li Xing

"Now we will tell consumers that Nanchang’sThe subsidy for car replacement and renewal is gone, and next year,The purchase of new energy vehicles also requires a 5% vehicle purchase tax. For some consumers who are waiting to see, considering the changes in the two major policies, they are likely to buy a car this year. The staff of a Tesla offline experience store in Nanchang, Jiangxi told reporters.

Changes in the "trade-in" policy in some areas affect passenger flow.

It is worth mentioning that the suspension of automobile replacement and renewal subsidy activities in some areas is another major factor affecting the terminal passenger flow of the automobile market during the two festivals. From October 1 ST to October 3 rd, when the reporter visited a number of automobile brand stores in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, he found that there was not much passenger flow to the store.

Just in September, many places in Jiangxi issued the Notice on Adjusting the Subsidy Activities for Trade-in of Consumer Goods, announcing that the subsidy activities for automobile replacement and renewal will be suspended from 24:00 on September 12.

Image source: Guan Wei of Nanchang Municipal Bureau of Commerce

"After the withdrawal of Nanchang automobile replacement renewal subsidy on September 12, the number of customers who went to the store to see the car and the transaction volume in the store were significantly reduced. Many consumers hold a wait-and-see attitude, and even if they come to see the car, they will not decide soon. " A staff member of Changan Automobile Sales Store in Nanchang, Jiangxi told the reporter.

Zhang Xian said frankly,Automobile replacement renewal subsidyQuitting has a great influence on your car purchase. "Before and after the subsidy, the difference can be 8,000 to 10,000 yuan, which is equivalent to the salary of ordinary workers for two or three months. Now there is no hurry to use the car at home, and we plan to wait and see for a while. " Zhang Xian said.

“Nanchang wants to stopAutomobile replacement renewal subsidyWe didn’t know until three days in advance. We’ll give it as soon as we know.Interested consumers called, and after everyone knew that the subsidy was going to stop, the traffic in our store suddenly surged, and the staff in the store began to work overtime. The staff of the above-mentioned Changan Automobile Sales Store said, "Our three stores (Changan, Qiyuan and Shenlan) issued dozens of tickets before the subsidy ended."

A FAW-Volkswagen sales staff member in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province also told reporters that,Automobile replacement renewalThree days before the subsidy stopped, 30 cars were sold in their store alone. "In September, I sold a total of 16 cars, 10 of which were sold before the subsidy was withdrawn, and only 6 cars were sold in the next 20 days. The impact of subsidy withdrawal is still relatively large. " The FAW-Volkswagen sales staff said frankly.

A Tengshi car salesman also said that NanchangAfter the subsidy for automobile replacement and renewal stops,The passenger flow from the store to the store and the billing situation have dropped significantly. However, on September 29th, a new Tengshi N8L car arrived at the store, which attracted some passengers.

Image source: Every photo by reporter Li Xing

Lang Xuehong said that despite the suspension of subsidy activities for automobile replacement and renewal in some areas, the effect of gathering customers during the two-day holiday is remarkable, and the demand for car purchases is released in a concentrated way. The superposition of dealers’ year-end impulse promotion activities is expected to support a moderate rebound in sales throughout the month. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, 44.4% of dealers are optimistic, and it is predicted that the sales volume of the automobile market will increase by 5%~10% year-on-year.

Most areas "trade in the old for the newSubsidies will run through the year.

In fact, since the second half of the year, many places have made dynamic adjustments to the "trade-in" policy for automobiles. In addition to many places in Jiangxi, Jiangsu Province also issued the Announcement on Adjusting the Policy of Automobile Trade-in in Jiangsu Province in 2025, announcing that the province will officially suspend the implementation of the subsidy policy for automobile replacement and renewal from 24: 00 on September 28, 2025; Ningbo also announced that since October 11, 2025, Ningbo will suspend the implementation of the subsidy policy for automobile replacement and renewal.

In August, Qinghai, Guizhou and other places announced the suspension of the "trade-in" subsidy for automobiles. However, in Lang Xuehong’s view, it is only a few provinces, cities or regions that stop the "trade-in" subsidy, and most regions will still implement this policy throughout the year. "In October this year, the state will issue 69 billion yuan of funds to support local governments to implement the subsidy policy of" trade-in "for consumer goods. All localities will basically come first-come, first-served and then distribute subsidies in a balanced manner." Lang Xuehong analyzed.

Image source: website of National Development and Reform Commission

In July this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document saying that the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be released in October as planned, and local governments will continue to support the implementation of the old-for-new policy for consumer goods. "In this case, the local’ old-for-new’ subsidies will not be used up at a certain time, and the subsidy policies in most areas will run through the whole year." Lang Xuehong thinks.

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